The US president-elect Barak Obama seems to have a well thought out approach on the Kashmir problem, as his remarks on the issues don’t seem off the cuff ideas. However, unlike the past international interventions in the issue the current proposition is not only different in context but also has links with broader regional security issues.
The Bush Administration was swayed by single-minded objective to destroy the terrorist sanctuaries inside Afghanistan and Pakistan’s border areas, known as Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA). Also the relations between Pakistan, India and Afghanistan got tangled. In this backdrop, Washington provided immense access to New Delhi in the internal matters of the Afghanistan besides striking a civilian nuclear deal with it.
On the other hand, the Bush administration employed traditional carrot and stick approach to fix problems with Islamabad. It provided around 11 billion dollars assistance, out of which over 70 per cent was spent either on defense related projects or to meet the expenditures of war on terror. Meanwhile, it also carries out attacks on Pakistani soil that has killed scores of people.
Around four hundred people have been killed in these attacks. According to the interior ministry, most of the killed were innocent citizens, which also included women and children. US spy planes drop missiles almost every second day in FATA and now in settled areas. These unwarranted attacks on the sovereignty of Pakistan would not help stop militants’ activities but rather would destabilize Pakistan.
Above all, relations between Pakistan and the US are getting strained. Public opinion also shows that the Bush administration’s policies have made US very unpopular in Pakistan. They also view the US as anti-Pakistan working in tandem with India and Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan.
There is now a broader and alternative thinking on the subject. The United States has realized that the use of force or providing military aid to Pakistan would not offer any solution. The prestigious US based Foreign Affairs journal published a detailed piece on the subject titled ‘From Great Game to Grand Bargain’ written by two prominent Afghan experts Barnett R.
Rubin and Ahmed Rashid. It recognizes that the concept of “pressuring” Pakistan is flawed. It says, “state can be successfully pressured into acts it considers suicidal. In this context, pressuring or giving aid to Pakistan, without any effort to address the sources of its insecurity, cannot yield a sustainable positive outcome.”
The two experts trace the roots of Pakistan’s fragile approach towards Afghanistan and particularly to the war on terror in its insecurities vis-�-vis its national territorial integrity. In this context Foreign Affairs suggest to establish a high-level diplomatic initiative designed to build a genuine consensus on the goal of achieving Afghanistan’s stability by addressing the legitimate sources of Pakistan’s insecurity while increasing the pressure against its disruptive actions.
The paper suggests that a first step could be the establishment of a contact group on the region authorized by the UN Security Council. This contact group, comprised of five permanent members and perhaps others (NATO and Saudi Arabia), could promote dialogue between India and Pakistan about their respective interests in Afghanistan and about finding a solution to.
The Kashmir dispute; seek a long-term political vision for the future of the FATA from the Pakistani government, perhaps one involving integrating the FATA into Pakistan’s provinces, as proposed by several Pakistani political parties; move Afghanistan and Pakistan toward discussions on the Durand Line and other frontier issues.
It further maintains a central purpose of the contact group would be to assure Pakistan that the international community is committed to its territorial integrity� and to help resolve the Afghan and Kashmir border issues so as to better define Pakistan’s territory.
Likewise, another pro-Obama administrations think thank The Centre for American Progress in its recent report urged Obama-led US government to promote increased dialogue on Kashmir and offer strong support to India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir issue. It further says that Pakistan’s border disputes including Kashmir and the Durand Line with its neighbors, should be resolved.
Obama has recently said that the military aid and equipments that the US has provided to Pakistan to use against Al-Qaeda were diverted to eastern border to counter the Indian threat. In the same vein he tried to make Pakistan understand that militants, not India, is the real threat to Pakistan now. The United States sees an opportunity to help Pakistan and India to solve Kashmir issue because it has excellent relations with the India nowadays.
After the signing of the nuclear trade deal with India Washington feels that its influence has immensely increased. The Center for American Progress’s report clearly says that until Pakistan feels more secure about its relationship with India, it will not reorient its military toward the insurgent threat within its borders nor is it likely to completely sever ties with militant groups who attack India and Afghanistan.
Bruse Reidel, former aid to President Bill Clinton, also expressed similar views in a recent interview. It seems that there is great change in the US thinking, which could be called as positive and has the potential to alter the current ground realities to certain extent.
However, Washington is not going to upset India anyway but wants to use its goodwill to promote the ongoing peace process between two countries. There is no denying the fact that the US administration has actively been involved to design and kick off the ongoing dialogue process between Islamabad and New Delhi.
The significant question is what exactly is in the US mind to do in this region. Of course, no clear scheme of the things is available before us so far; however, background interviews and information suggest that Washington is going to pursue a broader approach to resolve key issues between Pakistan, India and Afghanistan.
The Obama administration may invest huge efforts and energy to these conflict zones in year ahead. Most probably it would offer unique opportunity to India and Pakistan to overcome their dispute and give Kashmiri fresh avenues to exercise their traditional wisdom and acumen to extract maximum benefits for the betterment of the common man.
Amazingly, the renewed international interest coincides with the unprecedented mass upsurge in Kashmir, which is not only non-violent but also has garnered the support of all the stakeholders, including of the sane Indian intelligentia. Even, the pro-India mainstream Kashmiri parities also publicly admit that the separatist camp has huge mass support and elections are no substitute of the plebiscite. In this backdrop, the US goal to stabilize the entire region by solving the critical issues should be wholeheartedly welcomed.
It should be noted that the emerging Kashmir solution does not entertain the ideal aspirations of the separatist camp. However, it has the potential to change the entire scenario and bring enormous political and economic opportunities for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Question is how to seize the opportunity? The Kashmiri leadership needs a broader understanding and acumen to integrate Kashmir with the ongoing global discourse.
They have to come up with creative ideas with better articulation to fit them into evolving debate. I would conclude today’s column with the following excerpt from The Center for American Progress’s report titled ‘Advancing a New Strategy for Prosperity and Stability, in Pakistan and the Region’ that the international community can encourage a result-oriented dialogue that may reduce tensions at a swifter pace.